Some overall background
This month was quite busy for me work-wise, so my non-work output was very limited.
For background information, see my site page about Wikipedia
I created the following Wikipedia pages this month:
- Particular social group, a long-pending draft that I got a little time to polish and publish.
I also started a draft of the Wikipedia page on consular nonreviewability, which I hope to publish in October. Realistically, I don’t expect to do any more Wikipedia work this month.
The numbers below are for pageviews in September 2015, and are based on data collated by stats.grok.se and further summarized at Wikipedia Views. As with all numbers from stats.grok.se, note that these numbers exclude mobile pageviews but include bots.
- Pages I created over my lifetime: 217,908 views.
- Pages I created in September 2015: 89 views.
- Pages I created in August 2015: 1,279 views.
- Pages I created in July 2015: 7,024 views.
- Pages I created in 2015: 36,717 views.
Comparison with forecast: The number of pageviews (217,908) fell outside of my 95% probability interval of 115,000-200,000. All the unexpected component of the variation came from Internet.org, which became a big news subject in India after being associated with the Digital India Initiative. The pageview count for this page was 62,536 in September, compared to 11,437 in August. Even excluding this page, there appears to have been a slight overall increase in pageviews, which might reflect the fact that July and August were “summer months” whereas September is a “back-to-school” month. There was also a slight increase in traffic to pages about venture capitalists and angel investors, which might have been coincidental or may again reflect seasonal cycles.
October forecast: The extra traffic to Internet.org persisted through the first few days of October. Accounting for how this shades the traffic estimates, here are my estimates:
- My point estimate (for the median) is 157,500 pageviews. In other words, I believe there is a 50% probability that the number of pageviews will be above this number, and a 50% probability that it will be below or equal to this number.
- My 50% probability interval estimate is 145,000-180,000. In other words, I expect a 50% probability that the number of pageviews will fall within this interval, a 25% probability that it will fall below 145,000, and a 25% probability that it will be above 180,000.
- My 80% probability interval estimate is 133,000-200,000. In other words, I expect an 80% probability that the number of pageviews will fall within this interval, a 10% probability that it will be below 133,000, and a 10% probability that it will be above 200,000.
- My 95% probability interval estimate is 120,000-225,000. In other words, I expect a 95% probability that the number of pageviews will fall within this interval, a 2.5% probability that is will be below 120,000, and a 2.5% probability that it will be above 225,000.
I’ve also described my estimates in terms of values at particular percentiles in my probability distribution below:
- 2.5th: 120,000
- 10th: 133,000
- 25th: 145,000
- 50th: 157,500
- 75th: 180,000
- 90th: 200,000
- 97.5th: 225,000
For background information, see my site page about WikiHow
I created a new WikiHow page How to Use Amazon EC2 Spot Instances. As of October 5, 2015, it has 75 views.
I also made some edits and updates to WikiHow pages I had created previously. The pageview counts as of October 5, 2015, as well as the increments since September 5, 2015, are provided below:
- How to Optimize Your Amazon S3 Costs: 227 views as of October 5, up by 128 from September 5.
- How to Optimize Your Amazon EC2 Costs: 238 views as of October 5, up by 106 from September 5.
- How to Gauge the Popularity of a Topic Online: 682 views as of October 5, up by 38 since September 5.
- How to Efficiently Work Offline: 228 views as of October 5, up by 97 since September 5.
- How to Ride BART from the East Bay to San Francisco: 683 views as of October 5, up by 98 since September 5.
General background information: My site page about the subject wikis
I did not spend any time on the subject wikis this month. Year-on-year traffic growth has reverted to about 20% after slumping to 10% in August.
Below is the traffic information for Groupprops.
|Metric||Sep 2015||Aug 2015||Jul 2015||Sep 2014||Aug 2014||Jul 2014|
|Pageviews in sessions with at least 5 pageviews||23,066||13,046||12,616||18,157||13,205||12,887|
Here are pageview counts for the other subject wikis:
- Market: 20,745 pageviews, versus 19,550 for September 2014.
- Calculus: 21,579 pageviews, versus 17,843 for September 2014.
Comparison with forecast: For Groupprops, the total number of pageviews (73,510) was close to my point estimate of 66,500, and well within my 50% probability interval estimate (54,000-80,000) and 80% probability interval estimate (45,000-90,000).
October forecast: Last year, Groupprops for 104,663 pageviews in October. My point estimate for October 2015 is 113,000 pageviews. My 50% probability interval estimate is 95,000-130,000 pageviews and my 80% probability interval estimate is 80,000-150,000 pageviews.
I re-watched some episodes of Gilmore Girls. I also bought the MP3 for Wrecking Ball. I also enjoyed listening to Can’t Forget You, Arjun and Jonita Gandhi’s remake of my all-time favorite song, Tujhe Bhula Diya.
Notes: (a) Apologies for delay with publication; I had a bunch of other stuff I wanted to get done. (b) I’ve shortened the update to exclude domains where I didn’t add anything this month and where the passive impact of my cumulative work (as measured in e.g. number of pageviews) was insignificant. Of course, some of these may reappear in future monthly updates if I make contributions on those fronts in those months or their cumulative contribution becomes big enough. This selectivity keeps the update short enough for me to squeeze in the time to publish it.